Cool the Recession Talk
Economic indicators point to continued, moderate growth, despite the prognostications of the pundit class.
The odds of a recession in the United States over the next year don’t appear very high, though the economy could be subject to external shocks—international events, such as terrorist attacks, oil embargoes, and oil-price increases, for example, have provoked recessions in the past.
A sustained trade and tariff war between the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest economies, would surely damage the prospects for continued economic growth, for both countries. Since everyone is aware of the costs of such a conflict, good reasons exist to believe that it will be forestalled.
Current forecasts for a recession among pundits are not based on facts or real conditions but on a belief in self-fulfilling prophecies—that by predicting a recession they can create one, and thus set the stage for Democratic victory in 2020.
This is a good sign that they have an exaggerated opinion of their own influence and have lost touch with the canons of their profession. – James Piereson – senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute.