by Tyler Durden
With stocks at record highs and President Trump gloating at the “record strength” of the US economy, it appears confidence is coming back as sentiment among Republicans reached an all-time record high in the latest Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index.
The peak spread in confidence between Democrats and Republicans occurred in July 2004 (heading into George W Bush’s 2nd term election)… President Trump is currently very close to that peak…
Additionally, Gallup reports forty-five percent of Americans now have a favorable view of the Republican Party, a nine-point gain from last September’s 36%. It is the party’s most positive image since it registered 47% in January 2011, shortly after taking control of the House in the 2010 midterm elections. Forty-four percent give the Democratic Party a favorable rating.
The parity in Republicans’ and Democrats’ favorable ratings marks a change from what has generally been the case since Barack Obama’s election as president in November 2008.
Only one other time in the last decade has the Republican Party had a significantly higher score than the Democratic Party. That one exception came in November 2014, immediately after elections that saw Republicans capture control of the Senate and expand their majority in the House, when 42% rated the GOP favorably and 36% the Democrats.
Gallup concludes that for the Republican Party, less than two months away from an election that could see them lose control of both the House and the Senate, gains in public favorability are a welcome sign.
And finally, perhaps of most note as the media push the blue wave mania…
We note that Independents are well, independent, with sentiment soaring to its highest since Dec 2000…
As Bloomberg highlights, political independents have split from Democrats and grown more optimistic as the economy has forged ahead.
The question is – what happens if stocks crash between now and November?